LOGICAL FALLACIES

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http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=DIRECT+TV+COMMERCIALS&mid=19A4C3E21D60A06FF5C819A4C3E21D60A06FF5C8&view=detail&FORM=VIRE2

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.http://health.msn.com/health-topics/articlepage.aspx?cp-documentid=100288898

                                        Tax Day Will Drive Up Fatal Crash Rates

TUESDAY, April 10 (HealthDay News) -- The upcoming income tax filing deadline might be taxing in more ways than one for Americans: A new study suggests that fatal crashes jump on Tax Day, possibly as a result of last-minute filers carelessly rushing to the post office to mail their returns.

The study's lead author said the research indicates that "stressful deadlines lead to driver distraction and human error."

"Almost all of these crashes could have been totally avoided by a small change in driver behavior. An awareness of this risk could lead to better road safety," said Dr. Donald A. Redelmeier, a professor of medicine at the University of Toronto.

But others who study traffic said it's hard to understand what the findings mean since other possibilities, such as more cars on the road, rather than lots of people too revved up to pay attention, could drive up crash statistics on Uncle Sam's big pay day.

"The problem with announcing that any one day has a greater-than-normal number of traffic crashes is that often, when adjusted for the higher number of travelers, the crash rate isn't actually higher than a typical weekend day," said Tom Vanderbilt, author of the book "Traffic: Why We Drive the Way We Do (and What It Says About Us)."

For the new study, published in the April 11 issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association, Redelmeier and a colleague examined a database of fatal U.S. traffic accidents from 1980 to 2009. They looked specifically at crashes on the date taxes were due and the same day the week before and the week after.

While the federal government's typical filing deadline is April 15, it falls on Tuesday, April 17, this year.

Although the risk of dying on Tax Day is extremely small, it's a bit higher than on the other days. The researchers found an average of 226 fatal accidents on annual tax-due days compared to 213 on the other days. The increased risk is about 6 percent.

Increased risk was greatest for people younger than 65, the researchers said.

Redelmeier, who has investigated traffic fatality rates on other special days, said Tax Day is about as risky on the roads as Super Bowl Sunday. In 2008, he also reported that fatal crashes are more likely during polling hours on presidential election days, compared to other Tuesdays around the same time.

He said he thinks stress is the accelerator here. "It doesn't just hold on Tax Day but might also hold to other distinctly stressful times, such as when you're going through a divorce or something is wrong with your child or you've just lost your job," he said.

Chandra Bhat, a professor of transportation engineering at University of Texas at Austin, raised questions about the study. For one thing, he said, the study finds that people under the age of 18 are involved in more fatal crashes on Tax Day. It's not clear if they're passengers or drivers, he said, adding that if they're drivers, it's unlikely the crash increase is related to the tax deadline.

"Traffic accidents are such relatively rare events that a one-day period of observation may be inadequate to make conclusive observations," Bhat cautioned. "While I appreciate that the analysis design followed by the authors is quite good and that the authors have considered several years in their analysis, I still would be somewhat cautious in drawing conclusions."

Since the study didn't account for factors such as sleep deprivation, the authors recommend additional research that would ultimately beef up efforts aimed at prevention.

For now, they said, drivers should be reminded to wear seat belts, drive the posted speed limit and avoid alcohol on April 17.

                                                                       200 WORDS

                 Fallacies are all over the place. They are on the TV, radio, and in our newspaper ads.  I have found three fallacies on the internet.  The first fallacy I seen while I was lying in bed watching TV.  And a Direct TV commercial came on and lead us to believe that if we did not purchase Direct TV a chain of events would happen and it would end very badly. It wanted to you think, as long as you had Direct TV this would not happen to you. I took this as an example of the Post hoc fallacy.  Weather or not we have Direct TV, has nothing to do with bad things happening to us.

                The next Fallacy is an example of Appeal to authority; it wants us to think that if a doctor is smoking a certain brand of cigarettes then that brand  must not be bad for you. When they are. It does not matter what brand of cigarette it is, they will kill you!

                The last Fallacy is also an example of the Post hoc fallacy; it is a story of how tax day causes more fatal accident then the average day.  It talks about since taxes are due to get out in the mail, more people are rushing around and not paying attention and getting in fatal wrecks that day. I do not see how one thing has to do with the other.  I would think, since post offices are usually located inside the city limits, the speed of a car would not get high enough to just kill anyone who has a fender bender.

Word Count 270

               

RESEARCH PAPER - BRAINSTORMING

MAC DAYS-FISHING FLATHEAD LAKE

·         WHY ARE THEY TRYING TO KILL ALL THE LAKETROUT?

·         WHEN DID THEY START?

·         FUTURE PLANS FOR FLATHEAD LAKE?

·         WHO IS DRIVING THIS PROGRAM?

FAMILY HISTORY “ CARDOZA” NAME

·         WHERE DID IT ORIGINATE FROM?

·         ARE ANY OF THE CARDOZA’S IMPORTANT IN HISTORY?

·         WHAT DOES THE NAME MEAN?

·         HOW AND WHEN DID THEY COME TO THE UNITED STATES?

HISTORY OF EMERGENCY MEDICINE

·         WHEN DID IT START?

·         HOW DID IT START?

·         HOW HAS IT HELPED THE DEVELOPMENT OF MEDICINE IN WAR?

·         WHO STARTED IT?

OBAMA HEALTH CARE PLAN

·         HOW WOULD IT WORK?

·         PROS AND CONS

·         WHO WOULD MANAGE IT?

·         WHAT WOULD IT COVER?

CRABBING IN THE BERING SEA

·         HOW IS IT REGULATED?

·         HOW HAS IT CHANGED?

·         WHY IS IT SO DANGEROUS?

·         WHAT ARE THE LIMITS?

GLACIER NATIONAL PARK

·         WHEN DID IT GET STARTED?

·         WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO UPKEEP IT?

·         HOW DO THEY MANAGE THE ANIMALS AND PEOPLE WHO VISIT?

·         HISTORY OF?

OLYMPICS

·         WHERE DID THEY IDEA COME FROM?

·         WHERE DID THEY GET STARTED?

·         HOW DO THEY DECIDE WHERE TO HAVE IT EVERY YEAR?

·         WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO GET READY FOR ONE?

GRAND CANYON

·         HOW WAS IT CREATED?

·         WHAT DO ALL THE COLORED LAYERS MEAN?

·         WHAT ANIMALS HABITAT THERE?

·         HOW DO THEY MAINTAIN IT?

JOHN STEWART SHOW-FALLACIES

The first fallacy I noticed was the Hasty generalization fallacy. He made the statement that illegal Immigrants are diseased, rapist, drunks that act with immoral behavior.  And, that is not true. He is stereotyping immigrants. We as intelligent people know that disease is not dependent on the race. We as Americans, have disease among us as well.  I am sure that third world countries, such as Mexico, do have more disease in them. Not because of who they are, but because of the lack of medical treatment available to the people. Simply, all races have rapist, drunks and disease.

   The next fallacy I noticed was the Post hoc fallacy.  He wanted us to believe that because we have allowed illegal immigrants in the United States that is why we have had leprosy.  He then followed up with some grafts that showed a study. He wanted us to feel that that the action of letting the immigrants in has then caused the leprosy being brought here.  When actually, the graft he showed, was not from a reputable source or based on actual studies. Once we were given some accurate information that has been investigated by the reputable show Sixty Minutes. We find out that there were only 7000 cases of leprosy in the United States over the last thirty years.  We also found out that out of those cases, they are not sure of how many, or if any were immigrants. When in all actuality, one has nothing to do with the other.

    The last fallacy I noticed was the Appeal to Authority fallacy. Again, the so called expert showed small chopped up clips that showed political icons using some of the same verbage he was using such as immigrants, and leprosy.  He wanted the people to think, that because the reputable politicians were talking about the subject(s) that they are blaming the immigrants for the leprosy. Although, the politicians are not experts on disease or leprosy study, he wanted us to believe them, because of who they are.

http://fwp.mt.gov/fishAndWildlife/management/wolf/population.html

This is one of the Montana Fish and Wildlife sites that show nothing but facts, and results from the research studies, done over the last thirty years, which I think is very important. Research over the last thirty years should give us a nice rounded picture of where we were and where we are at now. This site will show the continued rising numbers of the wolf packs, and where they are located, and how far they travel. It also has a lot of important information on the history of the wolves in Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming. It gives us some good background information on the numbers and locations when they were re-introduced.

http://fwp.mt.gov/fishAndWildlife/management/wolf/game.html

This is another site that is packed full of information and data that has been collected over the past 10 years or so. Although, this site is mainly based on the large game numbers and how the deer and elk population has decreased, as the wolf population has increased. It discusses each individual district in the state .It gives some good numbers that show when the wolves move in the big game numbers go down.  It gives a good idea of the amount of big game the average wolf will consume to survive the winter months.  I think this is a good article, due to the fact that it factors in the other animals that take the big game population down as well. It has a lot about the bear and mountain lion population and http://www.friendsoftheclearwater.org/articles/northern-rockies-gray-wolf-delisting-fact-sheetshows that increased growth as well.

http://www.friendsoftheclearwater.org/articles/northern-rockies-gray-wolf-delisting-fact-sheet

Friends of the Clearwater, is a group that is working towards keeping the wolves on the endangered list.

This group is one of the handfuls of environmental groups that are fighting the federal government for the way the wolves were delisted then relisted then delisted this last time.  They do not feel that the way the wolves were delisted this last time was fair or legal, since the wolves were only delisted in the states of Idaho and Montana but not in Wyoming.  I understand there is a legal battle here, they are fighting for.  What I do not like about this article is that they are name calling. They are calling hunters killers. And they feel that people, who hunt, do so out of anger. I think that that they would get there point across better, if they would stick to the facts.

http://www.defenders.org/programs_and_policy/wildlife_conservation/solutions/wolf_compensation_trust/wolf_predation_and_livestock_losses.php

Defenders of Wildlife are another one of the groups that is working to protect the wolves. I really like the way this group presents there side of it.  They go about it by reporting the facts and showing the research they have collected.  Their position is that wolves are not the only predator that is killing the livestock and big game throughout the state. However they are focused mainly on the livestock portion of the battle. They also give some good information on the wolf species. They educate us on the population, life span, how far they migrate, behavior and the reproduction. Which all is very important, so you can get the full picture, of what you are dealing with.

Wolf Hunting-
http://host.madison.com/ct/news/opinion/column/patricia-randolph-s-madravenspeak-defenseless-wolves-urgently-need-howl-of/article_871e795e-c950-57a3-8085-b4514c0614f9.html

http://www.fourthestatenewspaper.com/mobile/news/prominent-wisconsin-predator-no-longer-protected-1.2770852

WOLF HUNTING

The techniques of each article were kind of the same. Both sites wrote a little about why they should hunt and why they should not hunt, but then as you read more deeply into the article you can tell what side they are really on.  It seems to me everyone is kind of on a fence, or they are worried they might offend someone.  They know there is a problem and they know it needs to be corrected, but they do not want to be cruel to wolves and kill them.  In one site, they feel wolves should be hunted due to the decrease in the elk, beaver, rabbit and deer population.  Also the Ranchers are having trouble with the wolves killing their livestock. The Wolves are migrating closer and closer to civilization and moving closer to the towns.

     Then on the other site, we do not want to be cruel to the wolves and hunt them at night, which is when they are more active, because that would be cruel. These people feel that there should be a better way than hunting or killing them.  They did not seem to voice any ideas on what that would be.  Or bring up the financial aspect of it.

    The tone of the opposing side is kind of sad, and pulling at your heart strings.  They use the cruelty aspect of it a lot, and seem to feel bad for the wolves. I understand that they do not want the wolves to go extinct again.  The other side seems to think it would be better for the conservation of wild life and it would really help the ranchers, so they can survive this outbreak. There tone is sterner, these are the fact and something needs to be done about it.

  I think that the Ranchers and Fish and Wildlife are more convincing then the opposing side.   The reason I feel that way, is because they seem to have more written documentation.  Fish and Wildlife Department have been tracking the numbers and migration movements of deer, beavers, and elk for years. They know that the numbers have been declining for the past few years, and they know that the wolf population has been on the rise for the past few years.  They also know how much the average wolf eats in a month to survive, when you do the math, there is the proof for me. 

word count 405

                                                              Tim O'Brien

    I think that in order to write about war and what they went through in a war zone, they would have to mix some truth and some fiction together.  Not for the sake of the writer, as it is for the reader.  I do not believe the general public can handle the real truth about what a solder has to do, or is instructed to do by our government. And then be judged by the people who sent you over there, for what you had to do to survive.  For a Solder, it is kill or be killed. Their life and survival depends on the guns, bullets, bombs, and death.

   To come home and write about the war and what you experienced over there would be hard.  I think it is a delicate balance of the truth, reality and morals; enough to give the readers somewhat of a glance into combat, but not the full truth. I feel the full truth would disgust the readers.  While I was reading “How to tell a true war story” I felt he wanted to give us more of the truth, and I also felt he needed to get it out, in the public for his own personal mental health. But at the same time, I felt he was trying to protect us from the truth as well.  It must be very hard for a solder to be raised with good moral values as a child, and then be sent away into a war zone as an adult.  To a horrid place they must live each day, to the opposite of the way they were raised.

Word Count 272

         Telling Prompt:
It was a friendly dog

         Showing Example:

The dog, Toeketna was laying on the front porch, waiting for someone to walk up the sidewalk. Along came David, the neighbors boy, who was there to return some mail.  As David turned onto the sidewalk, the dog jumped up and started to wiggling his tail and jump sideways with excitement. David knew the dog wanted to play, so he bent down and grabbed a stick to throw as hard as he could for the dog to retrieve. Toeketna ran, jumping and leaping through the air to get the stick, as though she had to get it before someone or something would beat her to it.  She picked up the stick with her mouth, and ran wagging her tail, with her head held high, all the way back to the boy. Dropping it at Davids feet and ready to go again.